This year I became curious to know if, over the past three seasons of the NAIA using RPI data, if we have started to see any trends with it. Now, I want to preface this by saying that 3 years of data isn’t quite enough to base a solid conclusion on, but it’s certainly a FUN way to look at the data and follow for this season to see if the data points hit again.
National Champion
Runner-Up
Fab Four
Quarter Finals
The RPI Data above is the final RPI data sets from 2022, 2023 and 2024. Over the last three seasons, here are the results:
The NAIA National Champions all had a Final RPI > .610
Runner-Ups were all between .590 & .611
Fab Four teams all were between .599 & .644 with every team, outside of OUAZ in (2023) also being inside the RPI Top 10.
The Quarterfinal teams, minus Evangel (57th) and CBC (84th) from last year’s QF round, were ALL inside the final RPI Top 25.
As we look at the Final RPI Data Sets, Here is what to look out for as a possible National Champion, based off of the past few years of RPI Data sets:
IF you believe the past three years are an actual trend, then The 25 teams above are your favorites to reach the NAIA Quarterfinals!
The teams above the blue line are your potential Fab Four teams.
The teams above the Green line are the ones who meet the criteria of the past three National Champions.
Taking the National Championship RPI point a step further….the past 3 National Champions have all been inside the Top 4 in the final RPI and it has NEVER been the overall No. 1 RPI team.
Which leaves you the teams in Yellow as your teams who CURRENTLY meet ALL criteria points of the past three National Champions!!!
Freed-Hardeman
Arizona Christian
Georgetown (KY)
College of Idaho
Again, we probably need a few more years of data to make this similar to the KenPom stats for National Champion criteria, but it’s at least a fun thing to track this year. As for an RPI predicted bracket goes, here is a fun one below whose outcomes were predicted strictly by using RPI data points.
We expect the actual bracket to be a little less chalky and filled with more upsets, so take it how you want. For the sake of this article, though, Arizona Christian is the predicted National Champion with the other teams in Yellow on the RPI sheet, all in the group who could win it as well! Looking forward to tracking this information again this year and seeing how the data aligns with the results!
Tickets for the NAIA Men’s Round of 16, in Kansas City, can be purchased below:
Buy NAIA Basketball Tournament Tickets | 2025 Event Dates & Schedule | Ticketmaster.com
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